suicide attack on american outpost

From a NYTimes piece on an Iraqi suicide attack on an American base (killing 2 soldiers, wounding 17 more):

A family of 13 was slaughtered on the road to Falluja, about 12 miles northwest of Baghdad, because they were from a tribe known to oppose the actions of Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia, according to witnesses. The family, including an elderly woman and two small boys, was dragged out of an Akia minibus, lined up in the middle of the road and shot. The executions took place in full view of others on the road, where traffic was stopped, witnesses said.

Given this prediction that Iraq is headed to three countries or at least decentralized Shia government in Baghdad, Shia superstate in the South, Kurds in North, and the Sunnis in West, this is my worry--that the Arab tribes will not be able to handle the al-Qaeda elements. Because the most brutal win--just as with Taliban in Afghanistan. On the other hand, the Americans need to somehow get the Sunni Baathists to see that their future (meager though it will be) lies in cutting al-Qaeda out and rebuilding their own mini-state to the West. The Baathists are highly skilled fighters--see the insurgency--but they will not kill women and children like al-Qaeda.

It is hard to see what the Sunni insurgents see as their plan--an attack like this is meant to pull the Americans out....unless this was an AQ attack? The Americans gone and with help from Saudi Arabia I assume the thinking is that they can win their position back.

As the article states with more troops headed to bases/outposts closer to the action--after a year of mostly being pulled away from the fighting--attacks like these send a chilling message: namely the small numbers of surged troops are exposed. This is a major attack in my view. Suicide bombing is almost always a response by an occupied group against a democratic western power. Or at least a colonizing power. The attacks over the last year had been mortar and roadside bombs--bc the American footprint over the last year had been significantly reduced most Americans being walled up in bases. Suicide attacks on Americans is reminiscent more of 2004/5 the bloodiest years.