palestine unity?

Another front to wait and see with some (albeit small I imagine) hope is on the Palestinian unity government front. The West--the EU and US--has got to get over this thing about the government recognizing Israel thing. The Saudis don't, you could get the Syrians too for the Golan Heights.

It is not in Israel's long term interest for a Palestinian civil war. Period. Hamas=terrorist or not. You have to deal with these groups. If they are ever to be modulated, which is up in the air, it will certainly not be after not being given power in a democratic election and having to work with Fatah-PLO.

I said cutting off aid to the Palestinians after the Hamas election was a mistake. I still think it is. This coalition of moderate Arab states to fight Syrian and Iranian influence is bullshit from beginning to end. Even Sec. Rice understands that a new Middle East is being born. The moderate Arab regimes are just a new variation on Arab-ism, the kind disregarded in the Baker-Hamilton Plan.

Iran and the Saudis have worked together on Lebanon, while also playing some back room pool on Palestine and will be fighting one another soon in Iraq. The moderate Arab regimes so-called are going to pushed closer and closer to an alliance with the dreaded boogeymen of the Middle East, the Israelis. That will not fly with their populations. Hezbollah initially was condemned by the Saudis until people protested in the street from Hezb., then the Saudis changed their tune. The only way those Sunni autocrats can maintain popularity and avoid their own demise allied with Israel is to hard core play the Shia-Sunni split which is disastrous for the Middle East to come. That would be years upon years of bloodshed.

This is unnecessary. Bush's cowboy adventurism must end. There is going to be violence and some spillover from Iraq not matter what. What he needs to be doing is getting the Iranians, Syrians, and Saudis down together to hammer out a basic set of agreed frameworks for something close to stability in the Middle East. Markets are waiting just on the other side of that movement.