Juan Cole on Iranian Weapons

A must read piece from Juan Cole arguing how Iran is NOT responsible (via Shia militia proxies) for the deaths of 25% of US deaths and causalties as the slovenly ignorant NYTimes reports this week.

At most the Iranians MAY, repeat MAY be giving weapons to Shia militias in Iraq, who the US is not fighting, who are then in turn selling them to the Sunni guerillas. As Cole points out by the same logic used against Iran, we should assume that our own government is supplying weapons to the enemy. Because a large number of US given weapons/munitions to Iraqi police is sold on the black market to the very guerillas fighting the police.

As Cole notes, the closest group to Iran in Iraq is the SCIRI and its paramilitary wing the Badr Corps, who happen be, along with the Kurds, the closest US ally in Iraq. Not to mention Iran agreed to help with the post-invasion in 2003 and we kept them out.

The US is not fighting Shia militias in any large measure. The Mahdi Army is standing down during this new surge, the Badr Brigade is our ally. Any other Shia split off groups are anti-Iranian.

Cole believes the story is a black psych-ops operation meant to drum up support (a la Hussein and Al-Qaeda reports) for an Iranian military strike. I'm afraid to say I think he might be right. Until the NYTimes has more solid proof than on unnamed USG sources (given the history of this adminstration's manipulation of a servile pathetic press), anything and everything on the subject should be suspect.

There have been throughout the war scattered reports of some minimal arms-weapons trade between Iran and the Sunnis. Not clear if there was such a connection or how strong. But the new cylindrical bomb--some serious evidence needs to be marshaled that Iran is selling directly to Sunni guerillas these weapons. Which again is not the claim--the claim is that Shia militias are. So then prove that we are fighting daily Shia militias. The reports of death continue to be mostly from Sunni neighborhoods even in Baghdad. If such evidence were publicly shown, open to other experts not in the administration and shown conclusively, then I'll recant. Til then consider this...


Cole:

This claim is one hundred percent wrong. Because 25 percent of US troops were not killed fighting Shiites in those three months. Day after day, the casualty reports specify al-Anbar Province or Diyala or Salahuddin or Babil, or Baghdad districts such as al-Dura, Ghaziliyah, Amiriyah, etc.--and the enemy fighting is clearly Sunni Arab guerrillas. And, Iran is not giving high tech weapons to Baathists and Salafi Shiite-killers. It is true that some casualties were in "East Baghdad" and that Baghdad is beginning to rival al-Anbar as a cemetery for US troops.

This president can not widen this war to Iran.