Sunday, July 08, 2007

John Robb's Theory on the Presidential Election

He writes:
Last month, I was asked by a group of smart publishing executives to pick the next President. They were pretty surprised.
1) Bloomberg will run.
2) Thompson and Hillary will get the nod.
3) Bloomberg will split the independent vote with Hillary.
4) Thompson will win.
I think he overestimates that Bloomberg will run if he sees the nominee is say a Thompson. But if Bloomberg does get in (and domestically his policies most closely mirror my own of any candidate, not sure he has a foreign policy vision), then it could help a Southern Republican. I think however Bloomberg knows that could be a Ross Perot or Ralph Nader-like figure and he leans more Democrat (particularly at this point) than Republican. I don't think he'll want to go down as shifting the election to a hardline right position.


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