Monday, July 16, 2007

Bush and his Reverse Midas Touch

More evidence here. On Bush's announcement of a new Mideast Peace initiative. Guess whose invited or rather not invited? Starts with H (Hamas, Hezbollah) and and ends with Assad (Syria). Plus Iran.

When (never I know, but I apparently I'm indulging my rational optimistic side) would he learn that there is a difference between Islamo-nationalism (Islamists) and jihadism (the so-called Islamo-fascists, al-Qaeda orbit, caliphate Salafi revivalists)?

The former group has a future and can not be rubbed out. All this conference does is further weaken the autocracies of Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt. It makes them even less popular (if such a thing is imaginable) with their populace. Hence the iron fist will have to come down harder still.

All the while, the street turns to Hamas and Hezbollah, and to the Mahdi Army.

The Caliphate groups have no future. They have perpetually less than 2% membership though they have wider support only due to an American occupation. They will be rubbed out of agrarian/desert climes (like Anbar) and some will inevitably settle in anonymous city confines (like the Taliban is doing in Afghanistan) or possibly very remote un-governed regions if they can strike deals with the tribal leaders (a la Waziristan). But there is no caliphate. Don't listen to Lindsey Graham tell you how al-Qaeda in Iraq this and al-Qaeda in Iraq that is going to take over. Give the Sunni warlords out there some guns and then them do the dirty work. What Jim Webb brilliantly on Meet the Press last Sunday called "red neck justice." As a Senator from Virginia, with ancestors who fought for the "Rebs" he should know.

The best that comes out of this theoretically is Saudi Arabia recognizes the state of Israel. But when the House of Saud is eventually overthrown (as seems more and more likely as time goes by), then that deal probably gets thrown out with the revolution.


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