Sic Tyrannis

Very persuasive analysis.

Only other possibility I can imagine: they realize this is all a no-go and are just cutting the losses?

clipped from www.google.com - This withdrawal talk is based on the assumption that the present Petraeus/Keane/Kagan plan will succeed in "breaking the back" of the insurgents.  There is no real evidence for that so far, so one must assume that the supposed "improvement" is what is called a "planning assumption."  A military plan exists within a universe created by assumptions about the world in which the plan will be executed.  Thus, there can be several different plans designed to deal with a situation and they may be different because they are based on different assumptions.  These assumptions are listed in the front of a published plan.