Friday, June 29, 2007

Mason-Dixon Poll

Hillary comes out badly. In fact in the lowest spot on both accounts. Here via RCP:

Favorable/Unfavorable Ratings
Giuliani: 43/17 (+26)
Obama: 36 /21 (+15)
Thompson: 25/12 (+13)
McCain: 33/28 (+5)
Edwards: 32/28 (+4)
Romney: 24/20 (+4)
Richardson: 19/15 (+4)
Huckabee: 16 /12 (+4)
Bloomberg: 20/18 (+2)
Biden: 21/20 (+1)
Clinton: 39/42 (-3)

And worse (on electability):

Would/Would Not
Giuliani 64/36 (+28)
Thompson 62/38 (+24)
Bloomberg 61/39 (+22)
Obama 60/40 (+20)
Edwards 59/41 (+18)
McCain 58/42 (+16)
Biden 57/43 (+14)
Richardson 57/43 (+14)
Huckabee 56/44 (+12)
Romney 54/46 (+8)
Clinton 48/52 (-4)

She looks better and better in each forum and looks as it were the part and focuses on her experience. Minus some awful campaign moves (The Sopranos Celine Dion Mix), but these numbers are there and are not going to change imo no matter how well she runs a campaign.

Part of it is her fault, part of it I imagine is chalked up to prejudice. But Democrats really have to think about this one. She could win, but wow it's an uphill fight. Republicans see that, see her still holding a substantial lead in the Primary and that has to help Rudy.

2 Comments:

At 1:55 PM, Blogger Tom said...

Hillary is my preferred next president. And I think she is the person most likely to be our next president since any Dem would be a 3-2 favorite over any Rep, and Hillary has about a 67% chance of getting the Dem nomination. But I am concerned about the rancour that is sure to dog her Administration and the continuation of full-throttle partisan bickering. It will be ugly, but with a Democrat congress, she would get a lot done that I would like to see get done. And, damn it, she's competent as hell.

 
At 3:21 PM, Blogger CJ Smith said...

Tom,

I'm not a big Hillary fan. Although not a Hater by any stretch.

As a young Gen Xer and child of the 90s, I do not want a repeat of the Clinton v. Republican let's fight over the 60s thing all over again. While I don't like all of Obama's policy and outlook (too liberal for my tastes), I do like his call for a post Boomer leadership to get over all this 60s/70s wedge issues.

You're right in general the Democrats have the momentum going into the election, nevertheless I think Hillary has serious problems with the Electoral College. Not to mention the stats quoted in the post.

Could have a 2000 repeat where she wins the popular election and loses the electoral.

Montana, Colorado could be in play for the Dems in 08, those were off the board (red) in '00 and '04. She could theoretically do well there. But she loses the South. Don't think she could pick up Florida and (depending on the Republican) will have a hard time in my home state of Ohio.

I've said repeatedly if it is Giuliani versus Clinton, Giuliani wins.

Hillary needs a very polarizing conservative and an apathetic Republican base to get a squeak by victory. She's got the latter, but I'm not sure about the former.

I will say I think she could beat Thompson and Romney. I think only Obama (or Gore) could take Giuliani though.

Thanks for the comment. As always, we'll see.

 

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