Wednesday, December 13, 2006

3 Aspects of the Nightmare that God willing can be avoided

The three things I hope--although I don't know at this point--the US could help not occur and should focus on are these (and not before 2007):

1.Stop a regional war from spreading. i.e. Get Iran and Saudi Arabia down at the same table.

2.Finally admit that Iraq has a refugee crisis--both internal and external. People are being displaced and that expatriate refugees have no status in Jordan-Syria, etc. Poor-er desperate elements of this group could easily become radicalized (a neo-Palestinians), bringing pain and chaos to every country that hosts them.

3.Protect the Iraqis who worked with the Coalition, who once we leave/drawdown will all be targeted. Get them and their families out. They deserve better than to be slaughtered.

#2 and #3 are verbhoten to discuss in US mainstream media because both point to, in one way or another, Iraq is a decentralized (did I say/you hear failed?) state.

In other news...

Bush has disregarded the Hamilton-Baker Group. He is extremely isolated right now. The vast majority of the electorate supports the Commission. He is pinched from the right (more troos) by the WeeklyStandard and Sen.McCain. He's flanked by the Realist right, i.e. Baker, and most of the Rep. House and Senate who know the party will be sent into major exile if we are still there in '08 and probably lose the White House.

The left obviously are all for Baker Hamilton or even more extreme Murtha-esque total immediate withdraw. He is trying to pass resolutions at the UN to condemn/sanction Iran puts crazy prerequisites on them and Syria before talking--as if they have any reason to be pressured by us now? WTF world does this guy live in?

So this week the news is he had army generals who told him Iraq Study Group is no good. Barry McCaffery (retired) who you'll see on NBC and its affiliaties. Who is one of the major proponents of the notion that the US is heading towards a war with CHINA!!!! See his op-ed today in the WAshingtonPost.

And other generals who it might not surprise you dear reader to learn have a vested interest in not admitting that the current policy hasn't worked. Most of the criticism has rightly come down on Rumsfield, but some of the generals (not all, maybe even majority) share some blame as well. Tommy Franks comes to mind.

What Bush fails to understand is that Iraq Study Group, a la Baker's genius, is written to the Arab world not to Bush. That is, I imagine, too subtle a ploy for the heavy-handed Bush.

A new governning coalition is going to form in Iraq. al-Sadr is out. The coalition will be the non-Baathist Sunnis, Kurds, and SCIRI (Abdul Aziz al Hakim, remember that name). Maliki is likely to be toppled in parliament I imagine first thing next year. Abdul Mahdi, Hakim's #2 will likely be the next (#4 is it?) Shia PM of Iraq.

I don't konw what Sadr is going to do. He is trying to build his own anti-coalition forces group with Sunnis, but I don't know if he'll have the numbers because the Kurds likely won't go for it. The politics of there is straight of Syriana.


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