Iran Israel

A debate between Michael Oren and Larry Derfner on RadioOpenSource on whether the Israelis will/should pre-emptively strike Iran.

To simplify Oren yes, Derfner no. Both are American Jews. It is a followup to a conversation started in the New Republic. Oren (and his co-author) cite Mossad intelligence agents for their arguments.

Oren's points:

1. Apocalypticism of Iran--Pres. Ahmadeinjad talks about the coming of the Mahdi (Messiah), ending the world, Holocaust Denial and willingness to sacrifice its Muslim population to destroy Israel. In other words, Iran can't be deterred by traditional nuclear means (mutually assured destruction)

2. Arms race will ensue in the Middle East if Iran gets the bomb.

3. If a strike occurs there are two possible scenarios:

Minimalist: Syria doesn't join, Israel can wipe out most of Iran's long range missiles, takes massive hit but survives.

Maximalist: Syria joins against Israel with chemical weapons, perhaps even Saudi Arabia and Egypt join, Israel is not as successful deterring Iran and perhaps half the cities are wiped out by Israel survives.
--Oren leans to the minimalist position.

4. A nuclearized Middle East would send (according to Mossad) a massive exodus from Israel of Jews and an economic boycott.

Drefner:

Admits a nuclear Iran is dangerous, supports the sanctions, but an Iran with a bomb must be brought into the picture. No strike will work and the maximalist position of a post-strike outcome is frightening. He is right I think that actually contemplating as a positive outcome 1/2 citizens death but survival brought on by a PRE-EMPTIVE strike by one's own country is madness.

Oren. I think he is right a nuclear arms race could occur. I have no idea what he is talking about in terms of economic boycott and mass departure from Israel. A nuclear Iran in the WTO and Shia Iraq plus Kurdistan are going to be major markets for Israel.

Syria would join in an attack on Israel unless Israel normalizes relations between the two (gives them Golan Heights). I think Oren is right that Saudi Arabia and Egypt wouldn't join in.

Oren has written the first authoritative history of America in the Middle East. He is very sharp and wise on the history, but his political outlook is very right-wing.

Again the question is not whether the president of Iran denies the Holocaust or wants to exterminate Israel (he does), the question is does the man who actually makes the decisions want that? Namely Ayatollah Khamenei.

But Oren may be pointing to a much stronger tendency and thought pattern in Israel. If that is the case, I'm even more worried than before. If that is what Mossad really thinks (as opposed to psych ops they are releasing to the press to cause disinformation/fear), then that is extremely worrisome.

Even Oren admits that an attack by Israel will not stop the Iranian program and merely delay it. So Israel should pre-empt and cause perhaps 1/2 of its citizens death to not stop the Iranian program, when it is far from clear any such existential threat is for sure imminent.