Bout Friggin' Time

Syria and Iran are invited to a regional dialogue on Iraq. Heard this one before? Thank God Condi might actually be holding Cheney back--and as much as I disagree with the man that people are cracking jokes about the bombing in Afghan. is sick.

They could still pull a rabbit out of this violent hat.

Iran is some years away from a nuclear weapon, even a low grade North Korea style one. As best as we know now. I'll admit the intelligence here has to be questioned in light of its misuse during the Iraq leadup. Regardless, the reform and conservative elements in Iran are starting to stare down the prospects of more sanctions and the opposite reaction that is the Saudis. The hardliners in Iran led by the President are in spewing more vitriol by the day. The Americans have to strip the conservatives (Khamenei and Rafsanjani) off from Ahmadinejad. To do that requires more than just co-operation on Iraq. They co-operated on Afghanistan and got zilch in return. It would have to be an all out diplomatic push that would give them assurance of their long term stability of their regime (off the Axis of Evil, off sanctions, into WTO).

The elements there now the American occupation is coming to end but they also fear the chaos/vacuum to be created. This is the US' last chance to achieve part of Bush's vision of a different Middle East. It is not going to be the one he wanted/dreamed up for sure, Syria and Iran are going to be there to stay. Hezbollah, Hamas, these dudes aren't going away. But the key is to tamp down the growing Shia-Sunni split, create a borderland bulwark (i.e. Syria) to prevent this, so that the big economic push and marketization of the Middle East which the despots I think can no longer hold back, particularly stemming eventually out of Kurdistan and Shia Iraq, takes off. That is the legacy Bush could offer. Not without blood, huge mistakes, and the rest.

So I'm hoping (though not without reservations given the past mo of these guys) this could be the first step in the massive diplomatic offensive that must take place. Condi has to really step it up, but Cheney looms in the background wanting to widen the war into Iran, leave the Iraqi government isolated and de-legitimized more than it already is, and re-entrench the Sunni autocrats.