Saturday, October 21, 2006

The End of the Bush Doctrine?

LATimes piece on Baker Commission:

Seems there are two major options on the table. Both involve the renunciation of the desire for democracy in Iraq, which has completely failed and has no future.

Plan 1 which the article claims is favored by Baker, calls for Iran and Syria to invovle themselves in the security of the country. Importantly, Saudi Arabia has come out this week against a Joe Biden-like tripartite division of the country (which could happen anyway). The Saudis then will need to be on board with this plan, and this statement might signal that pov.

Plan 2 is something akin to the Rep. Jack Murtha/Sen. Russ Feingold plan of re-deployment to Kurdistan and parts elsewhere to stem the tide of the Civil War which will explode after US troops leave.

This week elements of the Mahdi Army briefly held Amarya in the South, fighting the Iraqi polic and the other major Shi'ite militia Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution. News is Moqtada al-Sadr no longer has control of up to 1/3 of his own militia.

The problem as I see it with Plan 1, is that the fragmentary localized forces of crime, insurgency, al-Qaeda terrorism, intra-Shia fighting contines to make it difficult to see how even with Iranian and Syrian intervention, Iraq doesn't become a Congo-like kiling field for other countries to play out their vendettas while locally no one will be able to hold power against 4th Generation Warfare.


Post a Comment

<< Home